For most of my life, I have been one to question everything I was told. From what my parents and teachers said to what was in the books I read, my first instinct was to question things. Long before I became a know-it-all teenager, I was a know-it-all elementary school kid. Those were the best times. Back when being wrong about something, anything, had no real consequences. It was a simple matter of pride to present a bold argument, embellish the details to strengthen it, and emerge victorious. All the while thinking "I had no idea what I was talking about" or "I wonder if he/she (my rival in the argument) knew I made that last part up". Fast forward 30 or 35 years, to find a 45 year old man with a wife and two sons, and things take on a much different tone.
While I still like to sound certain, when discussing decisions I have made, the days of guilt-free living are long gone. Decisions now have consequences and try, as I may, to avoid those consequences, I cannot. Recently, I have re-learned, it is better to live with a little uncertainty, than to pay a high cost to pretend to be sure. These days, getting second and third opinions must be a standard practice. I think I have discovered that uncertainty is better discovered near the beginning than near the end of the decision making process.
As we, Americans, continue to hollow out our political middle, in favor of more certain "sounding" characters found at the fringe, I wonder what the long-term cost will be. Yes, I am now free to wonder, because my previous certainty has shown itself to be a dillusion. What certainty, one might ask? I was certain that lower and lower income taxes was the best and only recipe for a sustainable economic boom. I was certain that Phil Gramm's supply-side economics was the best long-term hope America had for prosperity at all socio-economic levels. I was certain that the "war on drugs" was a legitimate attempt to protect the future generations of Americans. I was certain that the deficits skyrocketing in the 1980's were a short-term problem and would soon be a thing of the past and moreover, the long-term gain would far exceed the short-term cost. My previous certainty on these issues, and many more just like them, has now been replaced by uncertainty, sketicism, doubt, and even fear.
Rather than rehash each individual argument to detail how and why my previous certainty now feels like a betrayal, I am more concerned with insuring that middle ground exist and that those who occupy that middle ground are not villified. After all, the only thing worse than finding out we have taken the wrong path would be managing to destroy the path as we travelled along it, making it almost impossible to get back to where we started (or some mid-point along the way).
Example: In the late 1970's the top marginal tax rates were above 70 percent (sometimes well above). This meant for some people, at the very top of our economy, they paid more than 70 cents on each dollar they earned (I use the word "earned" loosely, not as an invitation to debate what the word "earned" means). Very few people would argue the tax rate was not too high and so America started on a path to flatter tax rates, with fewer deductions. First, the top rates dipped into the upper 40's, and then into the lower 40's, and finally into the 30's.
Along the way, a savior emerged, Grover Norquist began accepting pledges from new congressional members to never raise taxes, on anyone or anything for any reason. For the first time in our history, we had discovered the ultimate answer to all our problems: lower taxes. Huge problems, that had once seemed difficult, were now simple. Better still, someone suggested that allowing the money at the very top to remain there (in large part), was a way to assure that capital was always available to fund American job creation, growth, and future prosperity. Who could argue with that? So, under the auspices of providing capital to grow the economy, we began lowering the capital gains rate. Today, with lower tax rates than ever, both income and capital gains, we still hear complaints about what should be a near perfect economy.
We re-structured the easiest target (welfare) in our social programs, but seem unable to touch Social Security, due to the large numbers of voting recipients. So we are now in search of new and easier targets. Yes, we are moving on to unions. They (teachers, fire-fighters, government employees, and laborers) have become the new cause of our ever growing debt. Well, I for one, am not so certain. What's more, I am not afraid to say, out loud (or at least in writing) that I am not certain. Ahhhh! That feels good. I AM NOT CERTAIN! No, my days of 100% certainty are behind me now.
As my side has taken over state houses throughout the country, I am starting to see that certainty is not always a good thing. As the right and left are peeled away, so the middle can be eaten, like some strange banana metaphor; I am beginning to see that we have no time to acknowledge the problems with our past theories, because we are in fervent search for the next scapegoat. In fact, I would like to renounce my status as an ultra-conservative Republican and form a new party called "We don't know what the hell is going on to our right". I know that name is too long to catch on, but I think it describes how many conservative Americans must feel, behind the facade of 100% certainty. I know it describes how at least one American feels, ME!
There is a reason why the numbers of independents are growing. There is a reason why the country seems to be lurching, back and forth, from one election cycle to the next. Maybe, just maybe, the guys (and gals) who are 100% sure about the answers to every political issue of our day are full of crap. Maybe, just maybe, knowing with 100% omniscient clarity exactly the right answer to every thing that occurs (and having it fit conveniently into your political dogmatism) is not a good thing. Maybe, just maybe, stiffly holding to the outskirts of every policitical discussion and refusing to come in off the ledge is not something to which I should aspire. While the espousal of certainty might engender nostalgia, surely it can only suffice for a short time before the masses demand some level of acumen and, God forbid, results.
